SquashLevels calculations
Colin Young v Mike Symmons (Thu 04 Nov 2010)
Match won by Mike Symmons. Result: 5-15,14-16,11-15.
Starting level for
Colin Young:
1,028, level confidence: 49%.
Starting level for
Mike Symmons:
1,582, level confidence: 50%.
Mike Symmons to win as he is currently playing
54% better than Colin Young.
Mike Symmons won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 53% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mike Symmons played
54% better than Colin Young in this match.
There is no adjustment needed for this match. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0%.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mike Symmons changes to 0% and Colin Young changes to 0%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mike Symmons: 71%, Colin Young: 70%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mike Symmons: 71%, Colin Young: 70%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Colin Young:
1,026, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Mike Symmons:
1,580, level confidence: 71%.