Mike Lindores v Matt Inglis (Tue 21 Aug 2012)
Match won by Mike Lindores. Result: 12-15,11-15,15-10,15-11,15-11.
Starting level for
Mike Lindores:
1,287, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Matt Inglis:
2,025, level confidence: 63%.
Matt Inglis to win as he is currently playing
57% better than Mike Lindores.
Mike Lindores won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 10% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mike Lindores played
10% better than Matt Inglis in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mike Lindores actually played at a level of
1,693 and Matt Inglis at a level of
1,540. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 32% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 24% and 24% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mike Lindores changes to +20% and Matt Inglis changes to -24%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mike Lindores becomes +10% and for Matt Inglis becomes -10%.
Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Mike Lindores is +6.5% and for Matt Inglis is -6.3%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mike Lindores: 88%, Matt Inglis: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mike Lindores: 67%, Matt Inglis: 60%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Mike Lindores:
1,368, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Matt Inglis:
1,903, level confidence: 60%.