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Darren Matussa v Manny Hopkins (Tue 21 Aug 2012)

Match won by Darren Matussa. Result: 15-12,8-15,16-14,11-15,15-4.

Starting level for Darren Matussa: 1,585, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Manny Hopkins: 1,407, level confidence: 63%.
Darren Matussa to win as he is currently playing 13% better than Manny Hopkins.

Darren Matussa won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 8% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Darren Matussa played 10% better than Manny Hopkins in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Darren Matussa actually played at a level of 1,563 and Manny Hopkins at a level of 1,427. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.4% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Darren Matussa changes to -1% and Manny Hopkins changes to +1.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Darren Matussa becomes -0.9% and for Manny Hopkins becomes +1.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Darren Matussa is -0.6% and for Manny Hopkins is +0.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Darren Matussa: 89%, Manny Hopkins: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Darren Matussa: 88%, Manny Hopkins: 78%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Darren Matussa: 1,574, level confidence: 88%.
Final level for Manny Hopkins: 1,415, level confidence: 78%.