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Roger Woodfield v Paul Craigen (Wed 22 Aug 2012)

Match won by Paul Craigen. Result: 15-12,15-17,9-15,12-15.

Starting level for Roger Woodfield: 1,119, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Paul Craigen: 855, level confidence: 65%.
Roger Woodfield to win as he is currently playing 31% better than Paul Craigen.

Paul Craigen won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 16% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Craigen played 22% better than Roger Woodfield in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Craigen actually played at a level of 1,080 and Roger Woodfield at a level of 886. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 26% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 23% and 23% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Craigen changes to +23% and Roger Woodfield changes to -21%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Craigen becomes +12.4% and for Roger Woodfield becomes -11%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Paul Craigen is +8.1% and for Roger Woodfield is -7.1%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Roger Woodfield is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Craigen: 81%, Roger Woodfield: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Craigen: 64%, Roger Woodfield: 65%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Roger Woodfield: 1,064, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Paul Craigen: 923, level confidence: 64%.