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Tim Webster v Alan Howell (Wed 22 Aug 2012)

Match won by Alan Howell. Result: 5-15,0-15,0-15.

Starting level for Tim Webster: 1,405, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Alan Howell: 1,397, level confidence: 67%.
Tim Webster to win as he is currently playing 1% better than Alan Howell.

Alan Howell won all of the games and 90% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 800% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alan Howell played 800% better than Tim Webster in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Alan Howell actually played at a level of 4,203 and Tim Webster at a level of 467. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 201% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alan Howell changes to +200% and Tim Webster changes to -180%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alan Howell becomes +63.6% and for Tim Webster becomes -59%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Alan Howell is +41% and for Tim Webster is -32%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Alan Howell is limited to +10% and Tim Webster is limited to -5.8% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alan Howell: 82%, Tim Webster: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alan Howell: 27%, Tim Webster: 28%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tim Webster: 1,326, level confidence: 28%.
Final level for Alan Howell: 1,534, level confidence: 27%.