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Chris Lynam v Martin White (Tue 28 Aug 2012)

Match won by Chris Lynam. Result: 15-10,15-9,15-7.

Starting level for Chris Lynam: 2,601, level confidence: 70%.
Starting level for Martin White: 2,219, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Chris Lynam to win as he is currently playing 17% better than Martin White.

Chris Lynam won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 73% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Lynam played 73% better than Martin White in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Chris Lynam actually played at a level of 3,161 and Martin White at a level of 1,826. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 22% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Lynam changes to +20% and Martin White changes to -19%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Lynam becomes +7.7% and for Martin White becomes -7.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Chris Lynam is +5% and for Martin White is -4.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Lynam: 83%, Martin White: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Lynam: 69%, Martin White: 70%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Chris Lynam: 2,727, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Martin White: 2,112, level confidence: 70%.