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Adam Long v Andrew Eilfield (Thu 04 Nov 2010)

Match won by Andrew Eilfield. Result: 11-15,5-15,9-15.

Starting level for Adam Long: 1,705, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Andrew Eilfield: 2,894, level confidence: 69%.
Andrew Eilfield to win as he is currently playing 70% better than Adam Long.

Andrew Eilfield won all of the games and 64% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 80% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Andrew Eilfield played 80% better than Adam Long in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Andrew Eilfield actually played at a level of 2,980 and Adam Long at a level of 1,656. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.3% and 2.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Andrew Eilfield changes to +2.2% and Adam Long changes to -2.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Andrew Eilfield becomes +1.5% and for Adam Long becomes -1.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Andrew Eilfield is +1.1% and for Adam Long is -1.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Andrew Eilfield: 83%, Adam Long: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Andrew Eilfield: 81%, Adam Long: 80%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Adam Long: 1,679, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Andrew Eilfield: 2,923, level confidence: 81%.