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Charlie Johnson v Chris Stanley (Thu 04 Nov 2010)

Match won by Charlie Johnson. Result: 6-15,16-14,10-15,15-12,15-13.

Starting level for Charlie Johnson: 2,879, level confidence: 58%.
Starting level for Chris Stanley: 3,460, level confidence: 47%.
Chris Stanley to win as he is currently playing 20% better than Charlie Johnson.

Charlie Johnson won 60% of the games and 47% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 11% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Charlie Johnson played 5% better than Chris Stanley in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Charlie Johnson actually played at a level of 3,234 and Chris Stanley at a level of 3,081. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Charlie Johnson changes to +9% and Chris Stanley changes to -11%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Charlie Johnson becomes +4.1% and for Chris Stanley becomes -4.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Charlie Johnson is +3% and for Chris Stanley is -3.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Charlie Johnson: 76%, Chris Stanley: 69%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Charlie Johnson: 68%, Chris Stanley: 61%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Charlie Johnson: 2,962, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Chris Stanley: 3,342, level confidence: 61%.