SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

John Kerley v Dan Collison (Thu 04 Nov 2010)

Match won by John Kerley. Result: 15-10,15-9,15-9.

Starting level for John Kerley: 1,392, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Dan Collison: 1,240, level confidence: 59%.
John Kerley to win as he is currently playing 12% better than Dan Collison.

John Kerley won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 61% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that John Kerley played 61% better than Dan Collison in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like John Kerley actually played at a level of 1,666 and Dan Collison at a level of 1,036. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 20% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for John Kerley changes to +15% and Dan Collison changes to -18%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for John Kerley becomes +7.7% and for Dan Collison becomes -9.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for John Kerley is +5.8% and for Dan Collison is -7%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Dan Collison is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. John Kerley: 85%, Dan Collison: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. John Kerley: 71%, Dan Collison: 64%.

A final adjustment of +0.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for John Kerley: 1,470, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Dan Collison: 1,197, level confidence: 64%.