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Paul Cousins v Matt Inglis (Tue 28 Aug 2012)

Match won by Paul Cousins. Result: 15-13,15-9,15-9.

Starting level for Paul Cousins: 1,886, level confidence: 70%.
Starting level for Matt Inglis: 1,903, level confidence: 59%.
Matt Inglis to win as he is currently playing 1% better than Paul Cousins.

Paul Cousins won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 45% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Cousins played 48% better than Matt Inglis in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Cousins actually played at a level of 2,308 and Matt Inglis at a level of 1,555. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 22% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Cousins changes to +19% and Matt Inglis changes to -22%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Cousins becomes +8.2% and for Matt Inglis becomes -9.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Paul Cousins is +5.3% and for Matt Inglis is -6%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Matt Inglis is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Cousins: 84%, Matt Inglis: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Cousins: 68%, Matt Inglis: 63%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Paul Cousins: 1,984, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Matt Inglis: 1,810, level confidence: 63%.