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Darren Matussa v Mike Hawkes (Thu 04 Nov 2010)

Match won by Darren Matussa. Result: 15-13,15-6,18-20,15-3.

Starting level for Darren Matussa: 946, level confidence: 53%.
Starting level for Mike Hawkes: 1,111, level confidence: 60%.
Mike Hawkes to win as he is currently playing 17% better than Darren Matussa.

Darren Matussa won 75% of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Darren Matussa played 33% better than Mike Hawkes in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Darren Matussa actually played at a level of 1,183 and Mike Hawkes at a level of 888. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 25% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Darren Matussa changes to +23% and Mike Hawkes changes to -20%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Darren Matussa becomes +12.5% and for Mike Hawkes becomes -10.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Darren Matussa is +9.4% and for Mike Hawkes is -7.7%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Mike Hawkes is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Darren Matussa: 73%, Mike Hawkes: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Darren Matussa: 58%, Mike Hawkes: 62%.

A final adjustment of +0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Darren Matussa: 1,033, level confidence: 58%.
Final level for Mike Hawkes: 1,069, level confidence: 62%.