Jordan Ryan v Tom James (Tue 28 Aug 2012)
Match won by Tom James. Result: 11-15,9-15,5-15.
Starting level for
Jordan Ryan:
1,970, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for
Tom James:
2,633, level confidence: 52%.
Tom James to win as he is currently playing
34% better than Jordan Ryan.
Tom James won all of the games and 64% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 80% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tom James played
80% better than Jordan Ryan in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tom James actually played at a level of
3,056 and Jordan Ryan at a level of
1,698. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 16% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 14% and 14% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tom James changes to +14% and Jordan Ryan changes to -11%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tom James becomes +5.7% and for Jordan Ryan becomes -5.5%.
Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Tom James is +3.7% and for Jordan Ryan is -3.5%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tom James: 72%, Jordan Ryan: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tom James: 62%, Jordan Ryan: 68%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Jordan Ryan:
1,901, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Tom James:
2,727, level confidence: 62%.