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Justin Turnpenny v Peter Iszatt (Thu 04 Nov 2010)

Match won by Justin Turnpenny. Result: 14-16,15-9,15-13,8-15,15-13.

Starting level for Justin Turnpenny: 1,191, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Peter Iszatt: 1,229, level confidence: 51%.
Peter Iszatt to win as he is currently playing 3% better than Justin Turnpenny.

Justin Turnpenny won 60% of the games and 50% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 2% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Justin Turnpenny played 8% better than Peter Iszatt in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Justin Turnpenny actually played at a level of 1,257 and Peter Iszatt at a level of 1,165. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.5% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Justin Turnpenny changes to +3.8% and Peter Iszatt changes to -5.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Justin Turnpenny becomes +3.2% and for Peter Iszatt becomes -3.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Justin Turnpenny is +2.4% and for Peter Iszatt is -2.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Justin Turnpenny: 85%, Peter Iszatt: 71%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Justin Turnpenny: 80%, Peter Iszatt: 68%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Justin Turnpenny: 1,218, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Peter Iszatt: 1,193, level confidence: 68%.