Robert Brooks v Julian Vecchio (Tue 28 Aug 2012)
Match won by Robert Brooks. Result: 12-15,11-15,15-4,15-10,16-14.
Starting level for
Robert Brooks:
1,791, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Julian Vecchio:
1,719, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Robert Brooks to win as he is currently playing
4% better than Julian Vecchio.
Robert Brooks won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 19% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Robert Brooks played
12% better than Julian Vecchio in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Robert Brooks actually played at a level of
1,859 and Julian Vecchio at a level of
1,656. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.8% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Robert Brooks changes to +3.4% and Julian Vecchio changes to -3.7%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Robert Brooks becomes +2.5% and for Julian Vecchio becomes -2.7%.
Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Robert Brooks is +1.6% and for Julian Vecchio is -1.8%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Robert Brooks: 90%, Julian Vecchio: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Robert Brooks: 87%, Julian Vecchio: 83%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Robert Brooks:
1,818, level confidence: 87%.
Final level for Julian Vecchio:
1,687, level confidence: 83%.