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Gavin Bone v Steve Durrant (Tue 28 Aug 2012)

Match won by Steve Durrant. Result: 15-8,11-15,13-15,15-12,12-15.

Starting level for Gavin Bone: 996, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Steve Durrant: 1,364, level confidence: 61%.
Steve Durrant to win as he is currently playing 37% better than Gavin Bone.

Steve Durrant won 60% of the games and 50% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 2% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Steve Durrant played 7% better than Gavin Bone in this match.

As Steve Durrant has played below his allowed range at 1,162, his level reduction is 8.9% before damping. On the assumption that Steve Durrant would normally have been playing at level 1,322 (based on typical behaviour), Gavin Bone played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 11%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.6% and 9.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Steve Durrant changes to -7.6% and Gavin Bone changes to +7.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Steve Durrant becomes -4.7% and for Gavin Bone becomes +5.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Steve Durrant is -3% and for Gavin Bone is +3.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Steve Durrant: 78%, Gavin Bone: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Steve Durrant: 69%, Gavin Bone: 77%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Gavin Bone: 1,029, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Steve Durrant: 1,322, level confidence: 69%.