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Carmel Horgan v Carol Booth (Mon 08 Nov 2010)

Match won by Carol Booth. Result: 8-15,12-15,11-15.

Starting level for Carmel Horgan: 236, level confidence: 50%.
Starting level for Carol Booth: 238, level confidence: 37%.
Carol Booth to win as she is currently playing 1% better than Carmel Horgan.

Carol Booth won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 45% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Carol Booth played 48% better than Carmel Horgan in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Carol Booth actually played at a level of 289 and Carmel Horgan at a level of 195. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 21% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Carol Booth changes to +21% and Carmel Horgan changes to -15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Carol Booth becomes +11.7% and for Carmel Horgan becomes -8.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Carol Booth is +8.8% and for Carmel Horgan is -6.5%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Carmel Horgan is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Carol Booth: 61%, Carmel Horgan: 71%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Carol Booth: 50%, Carmel Horgan: 58%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Carmel Horgan: 224, level confidence: 58%.
Final level for Carol Booth: 259, level confidence: 50%.