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Ian Taylor v Daren Olley (Tue 28 Aug 2012)

Match won by Ian Taylor. Result: 15-13,15-12,15-4.

Starting level for Ian Taylor: 1,265, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Daren Olley: 969, level confidence: 68%.
Ian Taylor to win as he is currently playing 31% better than Daren Olley.

Ian Taylor won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 55% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ian Taylor played 55% better than Daren Olley in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ian Taylor actually played at a level of 1,379 and Daren Olley at a level of 889. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 9% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.8% and 7.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ian Taylor changes to +6.7% and Daren Olley changes to -7.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ian Taylor becomes +4.4% and for Daren Olley becomes -5.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Ian Taylor is +2.8% and for Daren Olley is -3.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ian Taylor: 89%, Daren Olley: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ian Taylor: 82%, Daren Olley: 76%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ian Taylor: 1,299, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Daren Olley: 935, level confidence: 76%.