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James Jackson v Miles Wood (Tue 09 Nov 2010)

Match won by James Jackson. Result: 11-15,11-15,15-10,16-14,15-4.

Starting level for James Jackson: 1,683, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Miles Wood: 1,339, level confidence: 38%.
James Jackson to win as he is currently playing 26% better than Miles Wood.

James Jackson won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 17% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Jackson played 12% better than Miles Wood in this match.

As James Jackson has played below his allowed range at 1,557, his level reduction is 4% before damping. On the assumption that James Jackson would normally have been playing at level 1,654 (based on typical behaviour), Miles Wood played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.1%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.6% and 4.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Jackson changes to -2% and Miles Wood changes to +4.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Jackson becomes -1.6% and for Miles Wood becomes +3.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for James Jackson is -1.2% and for Miles Wood is +2.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Jackson: 82%, Miles Wood: 62%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Jackson: 77%, Miles Wood: 58%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for James Jackson: 1,660, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Miles Wood: 1,371, level confidence: 58%.