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Dan Collison v Paul Craigen (Wed 29 Aug 2012)

Match won by Dan Collison. Result: 15-11,15-6,15-11.

Starting level for Dan Collison: 1,379, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Paul Craigen: 923, level confidence: 62%.
Dan Collison to win as he is currently playing 49% better than Paul Craigen.

Dan Collison won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 61% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dan Collison played 61% better than Paul Craigen in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Dan Collison actually played at a level of 1,430 and Paul Craigen at a level of 890. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.7% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3% and 3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dan Collison changes to +2.5% and Paul Craigen changes to -3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dan Collison becomes +2.2% and for Paul Craigen becomes -3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Dan Collison is +1.4% and for Paul Craigen is -1.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dan Collison: 87%, Paul Craigen: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dan Collison: 84%, Paul Craigen: 76%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Dan Collison: 1,396, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Paul Craigen: 904, level confidence: 76%.