Peter Iszatt v Robin McCorquodale (Wed 29 Aug 2012)
Match won by Robin McCorquodale. Result: 5-15,9-15,15-8,3-15.
Starting level for
Peter Iszatt:
1,344, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Robin McCorquodale:
2,113, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Robin McCorquodale to win as he is currently playing
57% better than Peter Iszatt.
Robin McCorquodale won 75% of the games and 62% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 66% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Robin McCorquodale played
38% better than Peter Iszatt in this match.
In this case, Robin McCorquodale played at level 1,924 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Robin McCorquodale would normally have been playing at level 1,990 (based on typical behaviour), Peter Iszatt played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.4%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2.7% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Robin McCorquodale changes to 0% and Peter Iszatt changes to +2.7%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Robin McCorquodale becomes 0% and for Peter Iszatt becomes +2.4%.
Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Robin McCorquodale is 0% and for Peter Iszatt is +1.6%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Robin McCorquodale: 88%, Peter Iszatt: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Robin McCorquodale: 82%, Peter Iszatt: 82%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Peter Iszatt:
1,363, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Robin McCorquodale:
2,110, level confidence: 82%.