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Michael Broadbent v Richard Trugber (Tue 09 Nov 2010)

Match won by Michael Broadbent. Result: 15-5,15-12,15-8.

Starting level for Michael Broadbent: 1,565, level confidence: 57%.
Starting level for Richard Trugber: 814, level confidence: 35%.
Michael Broadbent to win as he is currently playing 92% better than Richard Trugber.

Michael Broadbent won all of the games and 64% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 80% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Michael Broadbent played 80% better than Richard Trugber in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Michael Broadbent was taking it easy by anything up to 11%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,202 and 1,565 without affecting his level.

In this case, Michael Broadbent played at level 1,465 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Richard Trugber is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Michael Broadbent: 76%, Richard Trugber: 59%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Michael Broadbent: 73%, Richard Trugber: 57%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Michael Broadbent: 1,563, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Richard Trugber: 813, level confidence: 57%.