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Anthony Clifford v Paul Heath (Wed 29 Aug 2012)

Match won by Anthony Clifford. Result: 15-7,16-14,15-11.

Starting level for Anthony Clifford: 1,309, level confidence: 56%.
Starting level for Paul Heath: 1,386, level confidence: 50%.
Paul Heath to win as he is currently playing 6% better than Anthony Clifford.

Anthony Clifford won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 44% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Anthony Clifford played 47% better than Paul Heath in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Anthony Clifford actually played at a level of 1,636 and Paul Heath at a level of 1,109. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 25% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Anthony Clifford changes to +22% and Paul Heath changes to -24%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Anthony Clifford becomes +10.7% and for Paul Heath becomes -11%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Anthony Clifford is +6.9% and for Paul Heath is -7.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Anthony Clifford: 75%, Paul Heath: 71%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Anthony Clifford: 60%, Paul Heath: 57%.

A final adjustment of +1.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Anthony Clifford: 1,398, level confidence: 60%.
Final level for Paul Heath: 1,337, level confidence: 57%.