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Paul Ryan v Simon Totten (Tue 04 Sep 2012)

Match won by Paul Ryan. Result: 15-10,15-5,15-5.

Starting level for Paul Ryan: 1,953, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Simon Totten: 1,827, level confidence: 62%.
Paul Ryan to win as he is currently playing 7% better than Simon Totten.

Paul Ryan won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 125% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Ryan played 125% better than Simon Totten in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Ryan actually played at a level of 2,833 and Simon Totten at a level of 1,259. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 45% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Ryan changes to +42% and Simon Totten changes to -43%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Ryan becomes +16% and for Simon Totten becomes -17%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Paul Ryan is +10.4% and for Simon Totten is -10.3%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Simon Totten is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Ryan: 80%, Simon Totten: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Ryan: 55%, Simon Totten: 54%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Paul Ryan: 2,145, level confidence: 55%.
Final level for Simon Totten: 1,737, level confidence: 54%.