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James Nield v James Cooper (Tue 09 Nov 2010)

Match won by James Nield. Result: 15-7,8-15,15-12,15-11.

Starting level for James Nield: 2,006, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Starting level for James Cooper: 1,835, level confidence: 61%.
James Nield to win as he is currently playing 9% better than James Cooper.

James Nield won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 18% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Nield played 23% better than James Cooper in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like James Nield actually played at a level of 2,125 and James Cooper at a level of 1,733. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.9% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Nield changes to +4.9% and James Cooper changes to -5.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Nield becomes +3% and for James Cooper becomes -3.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for James Nield is +2.3% and for James Cooper is -2.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Nield: 84%, James Cooper: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Nield: 79%, James Cooper: 74%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for James Nield: 2,048, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for James Cooper: 1,787, level confidence: 74%.