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Rob McGuchan v Dave McMahon (Thu 06 Sep 2012)

Match won by Dave McMahon. Result: 13-15,12-15,9-15.

Starting level for Rob McGuchan: 1,487, level confidence: 55%.
Starting level for Dave McMahon: 1,640, level confidence: 63%.
Dave McMahon to win as he is currently playing 10% better than Rob McGuchan.

Dave McMahon won all of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 32% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dave McMahon played 40% better than Rob McGuchan in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Dave McMahon actually played at a level of 1,847 and Rob McGuchan at a level of 1,321. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dave McMahon changes to +10.4% and Rob McGuchan changes to -12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dave McMahon becomes +5.4% and for Rob McGuchan becomes -6.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Dave McMahon is +3.5% and for Rob McGuchan is -4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dave McMahon: 79%, Rob McGuchan: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dave McMahon: 71%, Rob McGuchan: 66%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Rob McGuchan: 1,427, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Dave McMahon: 1,695, level confidence: 71%.