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Matt Cutchey v Steve Leverington (Tue 09 Nov 2010)

Match won by Matt Cutchey. Result: 15-5,15-9,15-6.

Starting level for Matt Cutchey: 2,061, level confidence: 51%.
Starting level for Steve Leverington: 1,470, level confidence: 67%.
Matt Cutchey to win as he is currently playing 40% better than Steve Leverington.

Matt Cutchey won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 125% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Matt Cutchey played 125% better than Steve Leverington in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Matt Cutchey actually played at a level of 2,611 and Steve Leverington at a level of 1,160. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 27% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 22% and 22% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Matt Cutchey changes to +22% and Steve Leverington changes to -16%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Matt Cutchey becomes +9.1% and for Steve Leverington becomes -7.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Matt Cutchey is +6.8% and for Steve Leverington is -5.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Matt Cutchey: 71%, Steve Leverington: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Matt Cutchey: 56%, Steve Leverington: 65%.

A final adjustment of +1.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Matt Cutchey: 2,199, level confidence: 56%.
Final level for Steve Leverington: 1,427, level confidence: 65%.