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Lawrence Foster v Chris Ginn (Wed 10 Nov 2010)

Match won by Lawrence Foster. Result: 15-13,15-11,14-16,15-12.

Starting level for Lawrence Foster: 1,503, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Chris Ginn: 1,360, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Lawrence Foster to win as he is currently playing 11% better than Chris Ginn.

Lawrence Foster won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 13% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lawrence Foster played 21% better than Chris Ginn in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Lawrence Foster actually played at a level of 1,574 and Chris Ginn at a level of 1,299. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.7% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lawrence Foster changes to +4.5% and Chris Ginn changes to -4.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lawrence Foster becomes +3.2% and for Chris Ginn becomes -3.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Lawrence Foster is +2.4% and for Chris Ginn is -2.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lawrence Foster: 82%, Chris Ginn: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lawrence Foster: 78%, Chris Ginn: 80%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Lawrence Foster: 1,536, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Chris Ginn: 1,326, level confidence: 80%.