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Craig Dancy v Ian Taylor (Wed 10 Nov 2010)

Match won by Ian Taylor. Result: 15-10,15-9,16-18,5-15,13-15.

Starting level for Craig Dancy: 1,355, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for Ian Taylor: 989, level confidence: 47%.
Craig Dancy to win as he is currently playing 37% better than Ian Taylor.

Ian Taylor won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 5% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ian Taylor played 9% better than Craig Dancy in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ian Taylor actually played at a level of 1,207 and Craig Dancy at a level of 1,110. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 22% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 19% and 19% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ian Taylor changes to +19% and Craig Dancy changes to -13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ian Taylor becomes +10.5% and for Craig Dancy becomes -7.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Ian Taylor is +7.9% and for Craig Dancy is -5.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ian Taylor: 69%, Craig Dancy: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ian Taylor: 56%, Craig Dancy: 64%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Craig Dancy: 1,285, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Ian Taylor: 1,065, level confidence: 56%.