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Simon Hancock v Greg Stephens (Wed 10 Nov 2010)

Match won by Simon Hancock. Result: 11-15,13-15,15-13,15-12,15-12.

Starting level for Simon Hancock: 1,426, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for Greg Stephens: 1,444, level confidence: 21%.
Greg Stephens to win as he is currently playing 1% better than Simon Hancock.

Simon Hancock won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 3% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Simon Hancock played 8% better than Greg Stephens in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Simon Hancock actually played at a level of 1,493 and Greg Stephens at a level of 1,379. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.7% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Simon Hancock changes to +1.5% and Greg Stephens changes to -4.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Simon Hancock becomes +1.3% and for Greg Stephens becomes -3.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Simon Hancock is +1% and for Greg Stephens is -2.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Simon Hancock: 80%, Greg Stephens: 45%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Simon Hancock: 76%, Greg Stephens: 43%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Simon Hancock: 1,438, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Greg Stephens: 1,407, level confidence: 43%.