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Paul Suckling v Tom Dupuy (Wed 10 Nov 2010)

Match won by Tom Dupuy. Result: 13-15,15-8,12-15,6-15.

Starting level for Paul Suckling: 1,272, level confidence: 44%.
Starting level for Tom Dupuy: 1,601, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Tom Dupuy to win as he is currently playing 26% better than Paul Suckling.

Tom Dupuy won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 15% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tom Dupuy played 22% better than Paul Suckling in this match.

In this case, Tom Dupuy played at level 1,561 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Tom Dupuy would normally have been playing at level 1,573 (based on typical behaviour), Paul Suckling played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.8%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 0.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tom Dupuy changes to 0% and Paul Suckling changes to +0.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tom Dupuy becomes 0% and for Paul Suckling becomes +0.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Tom Dupuy is 0% and for Paul Suckling is +0.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tom Dupuy: 92%, Paul Suckling: 66%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tom Dupuy: 90%, Paul Suckling: 65%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Paul Suckling: 1,276, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Tom Dupuy: 1,599, level confidence: 90%.