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Daniel Wolfson v Paul Nanon (Wed 10 Nov 2010)

Match won by Daniel Wolfson. Result: 6-15,15-9,15-11,10-15,15-10.

Starting level for Daniel Wolfson: 1,819, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Paul Nanon: 1,867, level confidence: 68%.
Paul Nanon to win as he is currently playing 3% better than Daniel Wolfson.

Daniel Wolfson won 60% of the games and 50% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 2% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Daniel Wolfson played 8% better than Paul Nanon in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Daniel Wolfson actually played at a level of 1,914 and Paul Nanon at a level of 1,774. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.2% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Daniel Wolfson changes to +5.2% and Paul Nanon changes to -5.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Daniel Wolfson becomes +3.2% and for Paul Nanon becomes -3.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Daniel Wolfson is +2.4% and for Paul Nanon is -2.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Daniel Wolfson: 82%, Paul Nanon: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Daniel Wolfson: 78%, Paul Nanon: 78%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Daniel Wolfson: 1,860, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Paul Nanon: 1,820, level confidence: 78%.