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Marc Woolhead v Charlie Johnson (Thu 11 Nov 2010)

Match won by Marc Woolhead. Result: 15-3,15-12,15-13.

Starting level for Marc Woolhead: 5,733, level confidence: 38%.
Starting level for Charlie Johnson: 2,961, level confidence: 66%.
Marc Woolhead to win as he is currently playing 94% better than Charlie Johnson.

Marc Woolhead won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 61% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Marc Woolhead played 61% better than Charlie Johnson in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Marc Woolhead was taking it easy by anything up to 11%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 4,378 and 5,733 without affecting his level.

In this case, Marc Woolhead played at level 4,919 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Marc Woolhead would normally have been playing at level 5,085 (based on typical behaviour), Charlie Johnson played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.4%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Marc Woolhead changes to 0% and Charlie Johnson changes to +1.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Marc Woolhead becomes 0% and for Charlie Johnson becomes +0.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Marc Woolhead is 0% and for Charlie Johnson is +0.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Marc Woolhead: 61%, Charlie Johnson: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Marc Woolhead: 56%, Charlie Johnson: 74%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Marc Woolhead: 5,724, level confidence: 56%.
Final level for Charlie Johnson: 2,977, level confidence: 74%.