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Dan Easton v Mike Hawkes (Thu 11 Nov 2010)

Match won by Dan Easton. Result: 15-12,15-11,15-9.

Starting level for Dan Easton: 1,645, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Mike Hawkes: 1,069, level confidence: 60%.
Dan Easton to win as he is currently playing 54% better than Mike Hawkes.

Dan Easton won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 41% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dan Easton played 45% better than Mike Hawkes in this match.

In this case, Dan Easton played at level 1,555 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Mike Hawkes is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dan Easton changes to 0% and Mike Hawkes changes to 0%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dan Easton becomes 0% and for Mike Hawkes becomes 0%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Dan Easton is 0% and for Mike Hawkes is 0%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dan Easton: 85%, Mike Hawkes: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dan Easton: 83%, Mike Hawkes: 76%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Dan Easton: 1,643, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Mike Hawkes: 1,068, level confidence: 76%.