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Mike Richards v Tim Bloomer (Thu 11 Nov 2010)

Match won by Tim Bloomer. Result: 10-15,6-15,6-15.

Starting level for Mike Richards: 2,171, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Tim Bloomer: 2,014, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Mike Richards to win as he is currently playing 8% better than Tim Bloomer.

Tim Bloomer won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 105% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tim Bloomer played 105% better than Mike Richards in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tim Bloomer actually played at a level of 2,991 and Mike Richards at a level of 1,462. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 48% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tim Bloomer changes to +41% and Mike Richards changes to -46%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tim Bloomer becomes +15.5% and for Mike Richards becomes -17%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Tim Bloomer is +12% and for Mike Richards is -12%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Tim Bloomer is limited to +10% and Mike Richards is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tim Bloomer: 88%, Mike Richards: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tim Bloomer: 59%, Mike Richards: 56%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mike Richards: 2,065, level confidence: 56%.
Final level for Tim Bloomer: 2,212, level confidence: 59%.