SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Nathan Derrick v Jack Fowler (Thu 02 May 2013)

Match won by Jack Fowler. Result: 10-12,7-11,5-11.

Starting level for Nathan Derrick: 3,277, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for Jack Fowler: 4,181, level confidence: 61%.
Jack Fowler to win as he is currently playing 28% better than Nathan Derrick.

Jack Fowler won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 55% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jack Fowler played 55% better than Nathan Derrick in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jack Fowler actually played at a level of 4,604 and Nathan Derrick at a level of 2,976. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 10.1% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 8.9% and 8.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jack Fowler changes to +8.9% and Nathan Derrick changes to -8.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jack Fowler becomes +3.6% and for Nathan Derrick becomes -3.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2013' so the adjustment for Jack Fowler is +2.3% and for Nathan Derrick is -2.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jack Fowler: 78%, Nathan Derrick: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jack Fowler: 71%, Nathan Derrick: 72%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nathan Derrick: 3,194, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Jack Fowler: 4,273, level confidence: 71%.