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Michael Easton v Simon Rigby (Thu 11 Nov 2010)

Match won by Michael Easton. Result: 15-6,8-15,11-15,15-9,15-8.

Starting level for Michael Easton: 922, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Simon Rigby: 1,116, level confidence: 70%.
Simon Rigby to win as he is currently playing 21% better than Michael Easton.

Michael Easton won 60% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 21% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Michael Easton played 13% better than Simon Rigby in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Michael Easton actually played at a level of 1,077 and Simon Rigby at a level of 956. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Michael Easton changes to +14% and Simon Rigby changes to -15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Michael Easton becomes +8.4% and for Simon Rigby becomes -8.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Michael Easton is +6.3% and for Simon Rigby is -6.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Michael Easton: 87%, Simon Rigby: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Michael Easton: 74%, Simon Rigby: 71%.

A final adjustment of +1.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Michael Easton: 978, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Simon Rigby: 1,081, level confidence: 71%.