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Alistair Coker v Stacey Ross (Thu 11 Nov 2010)

Match won by Stacey Ross. Result: 6-15,8-15,9-15.

Starting level for Alistair Coker: 3,806, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Stacey Ross: 18,401, level confidence: 48%.
Stacey Ross to win as he is currently playing 383% better than Alistair Coker.

Stacey Ross won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 96% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Stacey Ross played 96% better than Alistair Coker in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Stacey Ross was taking it easy by anything up to 41%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 5,593 and 18,401 without affecting his level.

In this case, Stacey Ross played at level 8,984 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Stacey Ross would normally have been playing at level 10,838 (based on typical behaviour), Alistair Coker played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 21%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 8.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Stacey Ross changes to 0% and Alistair Coker changes to +6.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Stacey Ross becomes 0% and for Alistair Coker becomes +2.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Stacey Ross is 0% and for Alistair Coker is +2.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Stacey Ross: 70%, Alistair Coker: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Stacey Ross: 44%, Alistair Coker: 54%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Alistair Coker: 3,881, level confidence: 54%.
Final level for Stacey Ross: 18,373, level confidence: 44%.