SquashLevels calculations
John Murphy v Gareth Jones (Thu 11 Nov 2010)
Match won by John Murphy. Result: 9-15,15-4,12-15,15-2,15-8.
Starting level for
John Murphy:
1,229, level confidence: 57%.
Starting level for
Gareth Jones:
1,025, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
John Murphy to win as he is currently playing
20% better than Gareth Jones.
John Murphy won 60% of the games and 60% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that John Murphy played
20% better than Gareth Jones in this match.
There is no adjustment needed for this match. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for John Murphy changes to 0% and Gareth Jones changes to 0%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. John Murphy: 75%, Gareth Jones: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. John Murphy: 75%, Gareth Jones: 88%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for John Murphy:
1,227, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Gareth Jones:
1,023, level confidence: 88%.