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Martin Miller v Paul Craigen (Tue 07 May 2013)

Match won by Paul Craigen. Result: 4-15,14-16,9-15.

Starting level for Martin Miller: 900, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Paul Craigen: 939, level confidence: 35%.
Paul Craigen to win as he is currently playing 4% better than Martin Miller.

Paul Craigen won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 70% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Craigen played 70% better than Martin Miller in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Craigen actually played at a level of 1,200 and Martin Miller at a level of 704. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 28% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Craigen changes to +27% and Martin Miller changes to -12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Craigen becomes +14.4% and for Martin Miller becomes -7.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2013' so the adjustment for Paul Craigen is +9.4% and for Martin Miller is -4.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Craigen: 59%, Martin Miller: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Craigen: 46%, Martin Miller: 64%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Martin Miller: 857, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Paul Craigen: 1,026, level confidence: 46%.