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Nathan Derrick v Andrew Clark (Thu 11 Nov 2010)

Match won by Nathan Derrick. Result: 15-5,15-3,16-14.

Starting level for Nathan Derrick: 2,564, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Starting level for Andrew Clark: 1,652, level confidence: 32%.
Nathan Derrick to win as he is currently playing 55% better than Andrew Clark.

Nathan Derrick won all of the games and 68% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 109% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nathan Derrick played 109% better than Andrew Clark in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nathan Derrick actually played at a level of 2,976 and Andrew Clark at a level of 1,423. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 16% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 13% and 13% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nathan Derrick changes to +5.8% and Andrew Clark changes to -13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nathan Derrick becomes +3.1% and for Andrew Clark becomes -6.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Nathan Derrick is +2.3% and for Andrew Clark is -4.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nathan Derrick: 84%, Andrew Clark: 57%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nathan Derrick: 72%, Andrew Clark: 49%.

A final adjustment of +1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nathan Derrick: 2,620, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Andrew Clark: 1,612, level confidence: 49%.