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Jonathan Fuller v Jago Nardelli (Thu 11 Nov 2010)

Match won by Jago Nardelli. Result: 15-5,12-15,8-15,11-15.

Starting level for Jonathan Fuller: 2,870, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for Jago Nardelli: 5,811, level confidence: 59%.
Jago Nardelli to win as he is currently playing 102% better than Jonathan Fuller.

Jago Nardelli won 75% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 9% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jago Nardelli played 20% better than Jonathan Fuller in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Jago Nardelli was taking it easy by anything up to 13%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 4,279 and 5,811 without affecting his level.

As Jago Nardelli has played below his allowed range at 3,833, his level reduction is 12% before damping. On the assumption that Jago Nardelli would normally have been playing at level 5,072 (based on typical behaviour), Jonathan Fuller played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 22%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 8% and 15% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jago Nardelli changes to -8% and Jonathan Fuller changes to +14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jago Nardelli becomes -3.1% and for Jonathan Fuller becomes +5.6%.

Given Jago Nardelli's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 3.4% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Jago Nardelli is -2.2% and for Jonathan Fuller is +4.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jago Nardelli: 77%, Jonathan Fuller: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jago Nardelli: 59%, Jonathan Fuller: 61%.

A final adjustment of +0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jonathan Fuller: 2,985, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Jago Nardelli: 5,739, level confidence: 59%.