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Rob St Ledger v Tom Horton (Tue 07 May 2013)

Match won by Rob St Ledger. Result: 15-13,15-13,15-9.

Starting level for Rob St Ledger: 1,428, level confidence: 26%.
Starting level for Tom Horton: 883, level confidence: 68%.
Rob St Ledger to win as he is currently playing 62% better than Tom Horton.

Rob St Ledger won all of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 29% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rob St Ledger played 37% better than Tom Horton in this match.

As Rob St Ledger has played below his allowed range at 1,217, his level reduction is 0.4% before damping. On the assumption that Rob St Ledger would normally have been playing at level 1,336 (based on typical behaviour), Tom Horton played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 3.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rob St Ledger changes to 0% and Tom Horton changes to +1.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rob St Ledger becomes -0.2% and for Tom Horton becomes +1.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2013' so the adjustment for Rob St Ledger is 0% and for Tom Horton is +1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rob St Ledger: 51%, Tom Horton: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rob St Ledger: 47%, Tom Horton: 76%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Rob St Ledger: 1,424, level confidence: 47%.
Final level for Tom Horton: 890, level confidence: 76%.