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Duleep Adhihetti v Robert Brooks (Tue 07 May 2013)

Match won by Duleep Adhihetti. Result: 15-13,15-9,12-15,15-12.

Starting level for Duleep Adhihetti: 2,904, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Robert Brooks: 1,898, level confidence: 70%.
Duleep Adhihetti to win as he is currently playing 53% better than Robert Brooks.

Duleep Adhihetti won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 16% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Duleep Adhihetti played 22% better than Robert Brooks in this match.

As Duleep Adhihetti has played below his allowed range at 2,436, his level reduction is 5.1% before damping. On the assumption that Duleep Adhihetti would normally have been playing at level 2,752 (based on typical behaviour), Robert Brooks played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.1% and 7.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Duleep Adhihetti changes to -3.7% and Robert Brooks changes to +7.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Duleep Adhihetti becomes -2.3% and for Robert Brooks becomes +3.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2013' so the adjustment for Duleep Adhihetti is -1.5% and for Robert Brooks is +2.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Duleep Adhihetti: 87%, Robert Brooks: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Duleep Adhihetti: 78%, Robert Brooks: 75%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Duleep Adhihetti: 2,857, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Robert Brooks: 1,944, level confidence: 75%.