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Peter Learyjnr v Cesar Ramirez-Molina (Thu 11 Nov 2010)

Match won by Peter Learyjnr. Result: 11-15,15-10,15-10,15-17,15-8.

Starting level for Peter Learyjnr: 1,548, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for Cesar Ramirez-Molina: 1,296, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Peter Learyjnr to win as he is currently playing 19% better than Cesar Ramirez-Molina.

Peter Learyjnr won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 18% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Peter Learyjnr played 12% better than Cesar Ramirez-Molina in this match.

As Peter Learyjnr has played below his allowed range at 1,483, his level reduction is 2.1% before damping. On the assumption that Peter Learyjnr would normally have been playing at level 1,533 (based on typical behaviour), Cesar Ramirez-Molina played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.7%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Peter Learyjnr changes to -1.8% and Cesar Ramirez-Molina changes to +2.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Peter Learyjnr becomes -1.5% and for Cesar Ramirez-Molina becomes +2.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Peter Learyjnr is -1.1% and for Cesar Ramirez-Molina is +1.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Peter Learyjnr: 88%, Cesar Ramirez-Molina: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Peter Learyjnr: 85%, Cesar Ramirez-Molina: 83%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Peter Learyjnr: 1,528, level confidence: 85%.
Final level for Cesar Ramirez-Molina: 1,316, level confidence: 83%.