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Mike Gregory v Will John (Thu 11 Nov 2010)

Match won by Mike Gregory. Result: 15-3,15-9,5-15,15-10.

Starting level for Mike Gregory: 6,857, level confidence: 59%.
Starting level for Will John: 2,977, level confidence: 61%.
Mike Gregory to win as he is currently playing 130% better than Will John.

Mike Gregory won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 35% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mike Gregory played 28% better than Will John in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Mike Gregory was taking it easy by anything up to 16%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 4,602 and 6,857 without affecting his level.

As Mike Gregory has played below his allowed range at 4,193, his level reduction is 9.7% before damping. On the assumption that Mike Gregory would normally have been playing at level 5,743 (based on typical behaviour), Will John played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 23%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.3% and 14% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mike Gregory changes to -6.3% and Will John changes to +14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mike Gregory becomes -2.5% and for Will John becomes +5.6%.

Given Mike Gregory's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 7.3% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Mike Gregory is -1.8% and for Will John is +4.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mike Gregory: 77%, Will John: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mike Gregory: 58%, Will John: 58%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mike Gregory: 6,729, level confidence: 58%.
Final level for Will John: 3,097, level confidence: 58%.