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Ian Blows v Alan Tierney (Thu 11 Nov 2010)

Match won by Alan Tierney. Result: 10-15,15-8,10-15,4-15.

Starting level for Ian Blows: 1,359, level confidence: 70%.
Starting level for Alan Tierney: 1,319, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Ian Blows to win as he is currently playing 3% better than Alan Tierney.

Alan Tierney won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 36% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alan Tierney played 29% better than Ian Blows in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Alan Tierney actually played at a level of 1,518 and Ian Blows at a level of 1,181. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alan Tierney changes to +14% and Ian Blows changes to -15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alan Tierney becomes +7.6% and for Ian Blows becomes -7.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Alan Tierney is +5.7% and for Ian Blows is -5.7%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Ian Blows is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alan Tierney: 85%, Ian Blows: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alan Tierney: 73%, Ian Blows: 72%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ian Blows: 1,292, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Alan Tierney: 1,392, level confidence: 73%.