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Nick Newson v Mike Byrne (Wed 08 May 2013)

Match won by Mike Byrne. Result: 15-17,15-12,8-15,8-15.

Starting level for Nick Newson: 1,228, level confidence: 53%.
Starting level for Mike Byrne: 1,349, level confidence: 54%.
Mike Byrne to win as he is currently playing 10% better than Nick Newson.

Mike Byrne won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 28% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mike Byrne played 26% better than Nick Newson in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mike Byrne actually played at a level of 1,445 and Nick Newson at a level of 1,146. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7.1% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mike Byrne changes to +6.6% and Nick Newson changes to -6.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mike Byrne becomes +4.2% and for Nick Newson becomes -4.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2013' so the adjustment for Mike Byrne is +2.7% and for Nick Newson is -2.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mike Byrne: 74%, Nick Newson: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mike Byrne: 69%, Nick Newson: 68%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nick Newson: 1,192, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Mike Byrne: 1,384, level confidence: 69%.