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Emma Booth v Di Ritson-Hall (Mon 15 Nov 2010)

Match won by Emma Booth. Result: 15-9,15-12,11-15,10-15,15-12.

Starting level for Emma Booth: 163, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for Di Ritson-Hall: 134, level confidence: 47%.
Emma Booth to win as he is currently playing 22% better than Di Ritson-Hall.

Emma Booth won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 5% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Emma Booth played 9% better than Di Ritson-Hall in this match.

As Emma Booth has played below his allowed range at 152, his level reduction is 4.3% before damping. On the assumption that Emma Booth would normally have been playing at level 161 (based on typical behaviour), Di Ritson-Hall played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.1%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Emma Booth changes to -3% and Di Ritson-Hall changes to +4.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Emma Booth becomes -3% and for Di Ritson-Hall becomes +3.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Emma Booth is -2.3% and for Di Ritson-Hall is +2.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Emma Booth: 78%, Di Ritson-Hall: 69%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Emma Booth: 74%, Di Ritson-Hall: 65%.

A final adjustment of +0.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Emma Booth: 161, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Di Ritson-Hall: 138, level confidence: 65%.