Stuart Kousoulou v Tom Lo (Tue 16 Nov 2010)
Match won by Stuart Kousoulou. Result: 15-11,6-15,15-8,17-15.
Starting level for
Stuart Kousoulou:
1,719, level confidence: 58%.
Starting level for
Tom Lo:
2,063, level confidence: 30%.
Tom Lo to win as he is currently playing
20% better than Stuart Kousoulou.
Stuart Kousoulou won 75% of the games and 52% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 8% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Stuart Kousoulou played
19% better than Tom Lo in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Stuart Kousoulou actually played at a level of
2,058 and Tom Lo at a level of
1,723. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 20% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Stuart Kousoulou changes to +9.4% and Tom Lo changes to -18%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Stuart Kousoulou becomes +5% and for Tom Lo becomes -7.7%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Stuart Kousoulou is +3.7% and for Tom Lo is -5.7%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Stuart Kousoulou: 76%, Tom Lo: 55%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Stuart Kousoulou: 63%, Tom Lo: 46%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Stuart Kousoulou:
1,780, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for Tom Lo:
1,950, level confidence: 46%.