Tom Horton v Duncan Green (Tue 14 May 2013)
Match won by Tom Horton. Result: 13-15,15-17,15-12,17-15,15-12.
Starting level for
Tom Horton:
890, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Duncan Green:
1,169, level confidence: 59%.
Duncan Green to win as he is currently playing
31% better than Tom Horton.
Tom Horton won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 6% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tom Horton played
9% better than Duncan Green in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tom Horton actually played at a level of
1,064 and Duncan Green at a level of
977. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 20% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 17% and 17% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tom Horton changes to +14% and Duncan Green changes to -17%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tom Horton becomes +8.1% and for Duncan Green becomes -9.1%.
Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2013' so the adjustment for Tom Horton is +5.3% and for Duncan Green is -5.8%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tom Horton: 86%, Duncan Green: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tom Horton: 72%, Duncan Green: 64%.
A final adjustment of +1.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Tom Horton:
936, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Duncan Green:
1,135, level confidence: 64%.